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“We’re continuing to see a decline in housing prices across the country and at the county level. That said, we’re also seeing some signs of strengthening in counties that are located in ground zero states of the housing crisis,” said Dave McCarthy, president and CEO of Integrated Asset Services. “With the IAS360 and the other granular Integrated Asset Services iMVI data, we are keeping a close eye on the counties within hard hit states, because it’s the counties that will be the harbinger of signs of a market recovery.”

States that have been hard hit by the housing crisis, such as Arizona and Florida, are seeing some counties appreciate in house prices.

At a state level, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate in Ohio had the biggest decrease, falling from 5.62 percent to 5.25 percent. Rates on 30-year fixed mortgages were lowest in the states of Georgia (5.19%) and Ohio (5.25%), while New York (5.44%) and New Jersey (5.40%) had the highest rates.

* Ithaca, N.Y., median home price, $179,500;
increased 5.9 percent in 2008
* Winston-Salem, N.C., $136,845, 3.4 percent
* Utica, N.Y., $112,737, 3.3 percent
* Spartanburg, S.C., $103,437, 3 percent
* Little Rock, Ark., $122,439, 2.5 percent
* Pueblo, Colo., $118,877, 2.4 percent
* Augusta, Ga., $109,815, 2 percent
* Oklahoma City, Okla., $113,417, 2 percent
* Des Moines, Iowa, $147,427, 1.7 percent
* Dallas, Texas, $132,312, 1.2 percent

Source: Forbes, Matt Woolsey (12/04/2008)

Lenders and loan-servicing companies have been modifying mortgages by lowering interest rates or creating repayment plans through the voluntary Hope Now Alliance. The group reported last month it helped 225,000 borrowers keep their homes in October. Foreclosures rose to a record in the third quarter as one in 10 U.S. homeowners fell behind on payments or were in foreclosure, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported last week.

The OCC’s survey represents institutions that service more than 60 percent of all first mortgages, or 35 million loans worth $6 trillion, Dugan said. “In general, the third quarter report will show many of the same disturbing trends as other recent mortgage reports,” Dugan said. “Credit quality continued to decline across the board, with delinquencies increasing for subprime, Alt-A and prime mortgages.”

Source: Bloomberg.net

This is the highest rate ever recorded in the index, which began in 1979. Last month’s index revealed a previous high as well; before that, the all-time high was 6.07% in 1985. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the third quarter was 1.07 percent, down one basis point from last quarter and up 29 basis points from one year ago on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.

The seasonally adjusted total delinquency rate continues to be the highest recorded in the MBA survey. The increase in the overall delinquency rate was driven by increases in the number of loans 90 or more days past due, primarily in California and Florida. The 30-day delinquency percentage remains below levels seen as recently as 2002.

The foreclosure starts rate differed greatly by loan type. For prime loans, foreclosure starts on fixed rate loans were 0.34 percent, unchanged from last quarter, while prime ARM foreclosure starts fell five basis points to 1.77 percent.

For subprime loans, fixed rate foreclosure starts increased 16 basis points to 2.23 percent and subprime ARM foreclosure starts decreased 16 basis points to 6.47 percent. FHA foreclosure starts were unchanged at 0.95 percent and VA foreclosure starts increased two basis points to 0.59 percent, all on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.

Nine states had rates of foreclosure starts that were above the national average: Nevada, Florida, Arizona, California, Michigan, Rhode Island, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. The remaining 41 states plus the District of Columbia were below the national average.

Jay Brinkmann, MBA’s chief economist and senior vice president for Research and Economics said, “An initial look at the number of foreclosure starts would seem to indicate at least a leveling off of foreclosures. These numbers, however, are being influenced by several factors including various moratoria on foreclosure filings and by mortgage companies holding loans in the 90+ day bucket during the modification and workout process. While 20 states showed declines in the rate of foreclosure starts between the second and third quarters, every state showed an increase in the 90 days or more delinquent category with the exception of Alaska and all of the increases were greater than what we would expect due to normal seasonal factors.

As for what is driving the national numbers, it’s still a case of product and location. Prime and subprime ARMs continue to have the highest share of foreclosures and California and Florida have about 54 percent and 41 percent of the prime and subprime ARM foreclosure starts respectively. Until those two markets turn around, they will continue to drive the national numbers,” continued Brinkmann.

The 15-year FRM this week averaged 5.33 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 5.74 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.65 percent. The 15-year FRM has not been this low since March 20, 2008, when it averaged 5.27 percent. Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) averaged 5.77 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 5.86 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 5.75 percent. One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs averaged 5.02 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 5.18 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 5.46 percent.

“After Federal Reserve actions to increase liquidity in the mortgage market, interest rates for fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) took a dive,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. This week’s decline was the largest since the week of November 27, 1981, and 30-year FRM rates are now almost a full percentage point lower since the last week in October.

“The recent plunge in rates contributed to the nearly 150 percent jump in conventional mortgage applications over the Thanksgiving week, led by almost a 300 percent surge in refinances, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Roughly three out of four mortgage applications were for refinance transactions, up from around half during the prior week.”

Santa Fe is Ready
Sunday, December 7, 2008
by Raam Wong • Journal Santa Fe

Train Service Begins Later in the Month

The commuter train is set to begin running between Santa Fe and Albuquerque this month. The train’s backers say it offers a rapid and reliable alternative to navigating around the turistas trying to find their way down St. Francis Drive or the smashups clogging Interstate 25.

But before they climb aboard, many are wondering just how much time and money really could be saved by traveling by rail.

For now, driving is still faster — just how much faster depends of course on how a train rider gets to a station and then to his or her final destination upon arriving in Albuquerque or Santa Fe.

The train trip between downtown Albuquerque and the Santa Fe Railyard will take 81 minutes. Driving takes 75 minutes on average, according to the project’s environmental assessment. But by 2025, rush-hour traffic is expected to nearly double, adding an extra 39 minutes to the commute.

“In the future the train becomes much quicker,” relative to driving, said project consultant David Pennington.

In Santa Fe, the city is changing a couple of bus routes to make stops at Rail Runner platforms and also is acquiring vans to provide a free shuttle service looping the downtown area, starting from the Railyard train terminus. The service aimed at tourists but could come in handy for commuters who work in the City Different’s historic center.

Albuquerque’s Rail Runner stops have links to the city’s ABQ Ride transit system.

Pennington expects commuters will also appreciate the Rail Runner’s reliability compared to travel on I-25, where everything from fender-benders to tornadoes and overturned tanker trucks have shut down the road with some regularity. The number of rush-hour accidents between the two cities is expected to rise from 3.5 per week to 7 by 2025.

“It’s bumper to bumper if there’s an accident,” said Sandy Larez of Santa Fe, who is eager to take the train to the Duke City to shop.

The first stop in Santa Fe will be at I-25 and NM 599. Designed with a large park-and-ride lot, the stop is intended to serve the nearly 22,000 residents who live within 20 minutes of the station. Employees who work at the nearby state prison, a few miles south off NM 14, and at the nearby New Mexico National Guard are also likely to use the station, planners say. The station won’t open until early next year.

Two other stops opening in December — the South Capitol Station, north of Alta Vista Street near a large cluster of state government buildings, and the Railyard — are expected to be used by state government employees and other downtown workers.

Commuters like Ashleigh Morris of Santa Fe are considering how the proposed eight southbound and eight northbound trains will fit their schedules.

Morris, who attends the University of New Mexico law school, is concerned about the lack of earlyafternoon return trains because she’ll get out of class next semester in Albuquerque at 2 p.m. at least a couple days a week.

“If there’s an emergency there’s no way for me to get home,” said Morris, who has two young children. Train officials say service will likely expand as demand grows.

Morris says she is drawn to the Rail Runner for its fares. She now pays $90 for a monthly pass with New Mexico Park & Ride, which doesn’t offer a student discount. A student pass on the Rail Runner covering the five zones between City Different and Albuquerque costs $50.

Riders are charged on a zone-based structure, meaning the ticket price is determined by the distance traveled. There are discounted fares for students, seniors and people with disabilities.

An $8 day pass would allow riders to travel round trip between Santa Fe and the Downtown Albuquerque/ Los Ranchos/South Valley “zone.” A dollar more will get Santa Fe riders to Belen with a day pass.

Even as gas prices plummet, the train may still be the bargain bet. At $2 a gallon, a round trip between the capital city and Albuquerque at 21 miles per gallon would cost about $12.

And Pennington notes that the cost of driving is higher. “Clearly the cost of commuting is not just the gas price,” he said.

The estimated cost of operating a car last year was 52.2 cents per mile, including insurance, maintenance, $2.30-a-gallon gas and other costs, according to the American Automobile Association. Using that number, a Santa Fe driver’s there-and-back trip to Albuquerque costs $62.64.

“I’m really excited about it being available,” said Santa Fe resident Peter Zandan. But Zandan is disappointed he can’t use the train to go directly to the Albuquerque International Sunport for his monthly trips out of state. The train doesn’t go there, though a free bus does.

There will be no Sunday service either — in the near term that day will be used to perform track maintenance — though some trains will run Saturday.

Meanwhile, an advocacy group has popped up on the social networking Web site Facebook calling for more late-night trains to support theater, music and dining in Santa Fe and Albuquerque. The group, “Call for Culture Friendly NM Rail Runner Schedule,” has 262 members.

Asher Singer of Santa Fe said it’s a shame there aren’t any late-night weekend trains. The last train pulls out of Albuquerque at 9:29 p.m., meaning the train isn’t a viable option for late-night bar-hoppers.

“If they just had one at 2 (a.m.) that’d be pretty nice,” Singer said.

Average Highway Commuting Times
U.S. 550 to St. Francis Drive Downtown Albuquerque to Downtown Santa Fe Current
35 minutes
75 minutes

2025 projected
65 minutes
114 minutes

ABQ/Santa Fe roundtrip
$62.64 by car: Based on an average of 52.2 cents per mile cost to operate a car, which includes insurance, maintenance, $2.30-a-gallon gas and other costs.
$8.00 by train/bus: Cost of a daily pass.